Immediate Causes of electoral Violence in Nigeria – Hon. Sale Audu Habu
Critical analysis on the immediate causes of electoral Violence from 2011 – 2015 By Hon. Sale Audu
There are a Number of issues that could immediately trigger electoral violence. These includes issues relating to the integrity of elections, use of
inflammatory rhetoric, and changes in political institutions.
inflammatory rhetoric, and changes in political institutions.
INTEGRITY OF ELECTIONS
Questions about the transparency and fairness of the electoral process, credibility of election authority, Neutrality or Partisanship of election Management
Authority, Lack of Faith in the electoral commission, lack of independence of electoral commission and the perceptionc that an election was rigged may play a major
role in instigating electoral violence. Doubts over the integrity of election can create frustration among stakeholders in the electoral process, which can transform
into violence. As Ethiopia’s experience illustrates, delays by the National electoral board of ethiopia (NEBE) in announcing the 2005 election results triggered public
protest which culminated in several days of violence (Barnes 2006). The issue of election integrity is even more problematic in countries where ethnicity is salient in
politics. In such societies, the victory or defeat of a particular candidate or party is percieved as victory/defeat of an entire community. As such, any form of
irregularities that would prevent a candidate or his/her community from clinching electoral victory is often opposed, sometimes violently, by the entire community
(ORJI 2010).
Authority, Lack of Faith in the electoral commission, lack of independence of electoral commission and the perceptionc that an election was rigged may play a major
role in instigating electoral violence. Doubts over the integrity of election can create frustration among stakeholders in the electoral process, which can transform
into violence. As Ethiopia’s experience illustrates, delays by the National electoral board of ethiopia (NEBE) in announcing the 2005 election results triggered public
protest which culminated in several days of violence (Barnes 2006). The issue of election integrity is even more problematic in countries where ethnicity is salient in
politics. In such societies, the victory or defeat of a particular candidate or party is percieved as victory/defeat of an entire community. As such, any form of
irregularities that would prevent a candidate or his/her community from clinching electoral victory is often opposed, sometimes violently, by the entire community
(ORJI 2010).
INFLAMMATORY RHETORIC
Spread of rumor and inflammatory messages about an election or its outcome could be an immediate trigger of electoral violence. The electoral violence in kenya’s
2007 elections and Nigeria’s 2011 elections were attributed mainly to the inflammatory messages send by supporters of different candidates (Harwood and Campbell 2010, Offili 2011: 3).
In The Nigerian
Case, Several unguided utterances were attributed to the candidates while some politicains were accused of using innuedoes to incite the public to violence
(Williams 2011). Inflammatory rhetoric sent via the social media worsened the tensions Created by religious and ethnic campaigning by supporters of president Jonathan
and Mohammadu Buhari. There were also SMS that attempted to stire up Muslims against president Jonathan and Nothern muslim governors perceived
to be supporting him. The anti-Jonathan rhetoric in the north hardened the stance of many southerners against Buhari, setting up an inevitable clash between followers
of Buhari and Jonathan. Both local and foreign Media have also been accused of Fanning the already inflammed discourse by reporting partisan stories with sensational
headlines. And example of such sensational headlines is the One by The Nation, a Major daily news paper in Nigeria which Carried the header:
‘The North is against Jonathan’ (Omondi 2011).
Publishing Provocative Stories during election periods when tempers are charged may incite supporters of different parties to violence.
2007 elections and Nigeria’s 2011 elections were attributed mainly to the inflammatory messages send by supporters of different candidates (Harwood and Campbell 2010, Offili 2011: 3).
In The Nigerian
Case, Several unguided utterances were attributed to the candidates while some politicains were accused of using innuedoes to incite the public to violence
(Williams 2011). Inflammatory rhetoric sent via the social media worsened the tensions Created by religious and ethnic campaigning by supporters of president Jonathan
and Mohammadu Buhari. There were also SMS that attempted to stire up Muslims against president Jonathan and Nothern muslim governors perceived
to be supporting him. The anti-Jonathan rhetoric in the north hardened the stance of many southerners against Buhari, setting up an inevitable clash between followers
of Buhari and Jonathan. Both local and foreign Media have also been accused of Fanning the already inflammed discourse by reporting partisan stories with sensational
headlines. And example of such sensational headlines is the One by The Nation, a Major daily news paper in Nigeria which Carried the header:
‘The North is against Jonathan’ (Omondi 2011).
Publishing Provocative Stories during election periods when tempers are charged may incite supporters of different parties to violence.
INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES
Sudden Shifts in institutional arrangements that guide election can result in opposition and violence. This is illustrated by Nigeria’s experience where the relegation
of the power-sharing arrangements which guided the previous election resulted in vigorous Opposition and violence.
of the power-sharing arrangements which guided the previous election resulted in vigorous Opposition and violence.
For many analysts, the 2011 post-election violence in Nigeria reflects the regional and religious divisions and simmering tensions created by debates over power
sharing modalities in the aftermath of the demise of President Umaru Yar’Adua. Many in the North Believe that President Jonathan, a christian and southerner should
have conceded his presidential bit to a northerner and muslim in honor of the unwritten rotation of power between the north and south. Umaru Yar’Adua, a Northerner and
muslim, succeeded President Olusegun Obasanjo a southerner and Christian who ruled Nigeria for 8Years beginning from 1999.
Unfortunately, Yar’Adua died untimely in 2010, midway through his term, paving the way for the then Vice President GoodLuck Jonathan to emerge as President. The
Proponents of power sharing insist that Jonathan shouldn’t have contested the presidency because the north had not completed its turn.
The 2011 post-election Violence can therefore be seen as an expression of the frustration caused by the failure of mohammadu Buhari, a Northerner and muslim to reclaim
the north’s control of the presidency from president Goodluck Jonathan. This is a a critical analysis on the immediate causes of electoral Violence from 2011 – 2015.
sharing modalities in the aftermath of the demise of President Umaru Yar’Adua. Many in the North Believe that President Jonathan, a christian and southerner should
have conceded his presidential bit to a northerner and muslim in honor of the unwritten rotation of power between the north and south. Umaru Yar’Adua, a Northerner and
muslim, succeeded President Olusegun Obasanjo a southerner and Christian who ruled Nigeria for 8Years beginning from 1999.
Unfortunately, Yar’Adua died untimely in 2010, midway through his term, paving the way for the then Vice President GoodLuck Jonathan to emerge as President. The
Proponents of power sharing insist that Jonathan shouldn’t have contested the presidency because the north had not completed its turn.
The 2011 post-election Violence can therefore be seen as an expression of the frustration caused by the failure of mohammadu Buhari, a Northerner and muslim to reclaim
the north’s control of the presidency from president Goodluck Jonathan. This is a a critical analysis on the immediate causes of electoral Violence from 2011 – 2015.
By Hon. Sale Audu Habu (Political Scientist).
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